Hot with Scattered Storms Today; Watching the Tropics

FOR TODAY: We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds across Alabama today, and temperatures are heading into the lower 90s across the southern half of the state. As we roll into the afternoon hours, scattered showers and storms will develop, much like we saw yesterday. These will be completely random in where the develop, but they will be out there providing some heat-relief, with intense tropical downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. When it is not raining, expect sunshine, hot temperatures, and heat index values over 100°. Stay cool if you can…

IN THE TROPICS: Tropical Depression Fifteen developed yesterday, but is no threat to the U.S. At 500 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the North Carolina coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Although the depression still has a small chance to become a tropical storm later today, no significant changes in strength are expected during the next couple of days. The system could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: 1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: An upper ridge will strengthen over the region, and our weather trends hotter and drier. Look for more sun than clouds these three days with, highs in the mid-90s, and only isolated showers/storms during the afternoon hours. Rain chances these three days will drop into the 10-20 percent range for much of South/Central Alabama.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: We will begin to increase our rain chances again as we roll into the weekend, with some scattered showers and storms for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with Sunday and Monday appearing to have higher coverage of activity. Not a total “wash-out” by any means, but just know rain and storms could threaten any outdoor plans at times over the weekend. Highs should be in the lower 90s these three days.

NEXT WEEK: The models are showing a big pattern change by the middle part of next week as a series of cold fronts look to make their way into Alabama. Even the Climate Prediction Center’s 7-10 outlooks shows well below average temperatures for much of the eastern half of the U.S. If this verifies, this would mean there is a real potential for a very nice taste of early fall air for the latter half of the week. Model data suggests highs will drop into the low 80s, with lows in the low 60s, with even the chance for some 50s across North Alabama…sure hope this happens!!!

Have a day of wonders!
Ryan