Scattered Showers Today; More Severe Weather for Alabama Thursday

Rain and a few storms highlight our forecast for today with very mild conditions as highs climb into the mid and upper 70s for most locations. We note severe storms are possible across Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana today, but not for us in Alabama.

MORE SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: A potent negatively tilted upper air trough will generate a deepening surface low west of Alabama, and will bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms back to the state by tomorrow afternoon and night. The SPC has nearly the entire state of Alabama under a severe weather risk during this time. A “moderate risk” (leve 4/5) is in effect for West and Northwest Alabama and includes Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Cullman, Huntsville, and Muscle Shoals. An “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) covers areas for Thomasville to Selma to Marbury to Ashland, while the level 2/5, covers the rest of the area. Again, don’t focus on the color or lines on the map, just know that all of Alabama is a under the threat from severe storms.

First, there remains quite a bit of difference in the models on how this event plays out so there remains a fair amount of uncertainty. However, this is another typical spring-time severe weather set-up for Alabama and the Southeast allowing for surging instability values during the day, the deepening surface low northwest of the state will also allow strong wind fields aloft, high shear values, and steep lapse rates, providing an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. And, a few strong/violent tornadoes can’t be ruled out, across the state.

As far as timing, the main window for Alabama looks to begin noon Thursday through 3AM Thursday morning. Of course we will have a better handle on the threats and timing of the event over the 24 hours. Please make sure you pay attention to future forecasts, and go ahead and make sure all parts of your severe weather safety plan are ready in case you have to act and be in a position to hear severe weather warnings Thursday.

Severe storms or not, rainfall could become an issue as from now through the weekend as rain amounts across the state could be significant as totals will be in the range of 2-4 inches. So if you live in flood prone areas, just be prepared to act.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Drier air arrives Friday; as the front pushes down into South Alabama and stalls, but the sky becomes partly sunny with a high in the 70s for the northern half of the state Friday. For the weekend, the weather looks to be more unsettled as disturbances ride up and long the front, bringing with them better rain chances to the state, especially the southern half of the state Saturday and perhaps into Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be very mild in ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The week looks generally quiet, although a few showers are possible Tuesday with a weak front approaching, but nothing too significant showing up in the long range models for now, but of course that will likely change.

Have a whimsical Wednesday!!!
Ryan