Dry Wednesday; Potential Strong Storms Ahead

WARM WEDNESDAY: Today will be another very nice spring day as temperatures climb into the lower 80s by the afternoon. Moisture levels begin to rise and clouds begin to increase by the afternoon as well. The day will be dry, but an approaching cold front will bring a band of rain and thunderstorms to the state tonight and into Thursday.

RAIN/STORMS RETURN: The SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for a few counties near the Mississippi border, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) as far east as Huntsville, Verbena, and Atmore.

The storms will be weakening as they enter West Alabama, but they could still produce strong, gusty winds and some hail. Tornado chances are very low, but not zero, so we will need to mention the low chance of a brief, isolated tornado. The main window for the storms to roll through the state will come from 9PM tonight through 9AM Thursday morning, but again, the storms will be weakening as the main dynamics pull well north of Alabama. We do note the SPC has much of the state under a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms tomorrow, but this is mainly for early tomorrow morning.

Storms will end early Thursday morning as a dry slot moves into the state, and a decent part of the day Thursday looks dry with some sun possible and a high in the upper 70s across the northern half of the state, while shower and storms will remain possible across South Alabama.

FRIDAY & THE WEEKEND: More rain and storms are in the forecast for Friday and into Saturday with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be breaks in the rain, and for now there is a decent chance we could see some organized severe weather and the SPC has already issued risk areas for both Friday and Saturday.

Heavy rainfall and strong storms are expected across the area, and a lot can and will change as there is a lot of model discrepancies so we will be fine-tuning the forecast as new model data comes in. Rain amounts between tomorrow and Saturday will be in the 2-4 inch range for most of the state, and highs will remain in the 70s Friday and Saturday. Then, dry air moves into the state Sunday with a mostly sunny sky returning. Sunday’s high will be in the mid to upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The dry weather continues for Monday and likely Tuesday, but by midweek, clouds return and more showers and storms are possible for the second half of the week. The pattern the next few weeks looks fairly active, which is should be for spring in Alabama, and every system will have to be watched for the possibility of strong and severe storms. Temperatures will remain warm with 70s and 80s expected most afternoons.

Have a whimsical Wednesday!!!
Ryan