Dry Rest of Week; Tropical Troubles for the Weekend

TONS OF SUNSHINE: Drier air has settled into the state for a few days, and though it is still hot, it is not as humid as it has been recently. Today through Friday it will remain sunny and dry, with highs in the lower 90s, while nights will be comfortable with widespread 60s. By Friday, things start to change, and the forecast for the upcoming weekend will all depend on the likely system approaching the Gulf Coast.

LATEST ON INVEST 92-L: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little during the next day or so, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land.

However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent. If and when this system develops it will get the name Claudette.

WEEKEND WEATHER: For now, with the current forecast model outputs, it looks like we will quite a bit of tropical moisture to deal with by Saturday. As the system moves onshore and moves east through Alabama, the forecast for much of the weekend looks generally cloudy with occasional showers and storms and temperatures in the 70s and 80s. The overall track of the center of circulation will determine where the heaviest band of rain will be as rainfall totals could easily be over six inches. This forecast will change in the coming days as the system finally develops and gets better organized. As we approach the weekend, we will have a better handle on the track and intensity of the the system and where the greater impacts are expected.

FOR NEXT WEEK: The tropical system should be out of here by late Monday, but a cold front could trigger a few showers late in the day or Monday night. Global model suggests drier could drop into Alabama for the second half of the week.

Have an exuberant Wednesday!!!
Ryan