All Eyes on the Gulf

SUNNY, DRY, HOT THURSDAY: Not too bad outside with the lower dew points in place across the state. The dry air is allowing for sunshine in full supply today and we are seeing temperatures head into the lower 90s this afternoon. Tonight, another clear and comfortable one with widespread 60s. For tomorrow, clouds begin to increase and we will need to mention scattered showers and storms by the afternoon as moisture levels increase ahead of an approaching tropical system in the Gulf.

LATEST ON INVEST 92-L: It is only a matter of time before we get a depression and likely Claudette to form in the Gulf…A broad low pressure area located over the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system will move little today, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land and unfavorable upper-level winds.

However, the low should begin to move northward by this afternoon, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form by late tonight or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.

This feature will track north through the western Gulf of Mexico, and looks to make landfall along the Louisiana Coast, then track northeast through the Deep South. Forecast model data shows the center of circulation moving faster and will track right through Central Alabama. This would mean the band of heaviest rain would move right through the area, and could cause some flash flooding issues, but also, being east of the center, could lead to quick, spin-up tornadoes especial Sunday across Alabama.

WET WEEKEND WEATHER: For now, with the current forecast model outputs, expect a rather wet weekend across Alabama as rain overspreads the state Saturday and will continue into Saturday night and through the day Sunday. Rainfall could be heavy at times, with some areas receiving over six inches of rain, especially where the heaviest rain band tracks.

It will be a cloudy and very muggy weekend with temperatures around the 80 degree mark. Again, this forecast will change in the coming days as the system finally develops and gets better organized, once it does, we will have a better handle on the track, timing, and potential impacts.

FOR NEXT WEEK: The tropical system should be exit the area by Monday, leaving a very moist air mass in place, that will continue to allow for showers and storms, but a cold front will drop into the state on Tuesday and should bring drier air into North/Central Alabama for the rest of next week.

Be a blessing to someone today!!!
Ryan