Sunshine And Dry Now; Tropical Impacts This Weekend
Thursday afternoon features nice weather by mid-June standards. Although afternoon temperatures likely peak in the low 90s, humidity remains low enough that the heat index or “feels-like” temperature remains near or just below the actual air temperature. Sunshine fills the sky throughout the afternoon with a northeast breeze of about 4 to 8 mph. The relatively dry air lends itself to temperatures cooling considerably overnight, with lows falling into the 60s once more under a mostly clear sky.
The sunny and dry weather ends Friday, as clouds increase throughout the day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms also dot the radar, with rain chances arriving south to north over the course of the day. This serves as the onset of tropical rains associated with a potential tropical cyclone. For now, the potential cyclone is simply a broad area of low pressure located near the Bay of Campeche. However, the NHC gives it a high 90% formation chance over the next two to five days. Models show the circulation moving onshore along the northern gulf coast Saturday morning.
If nothing else, heavy rain appears to be a significant threat for our area over the weekend. As of Thursday morning, the most recent model runs paint a picture of 2-4″ rain totals across south Alabama. Depending on the eventual track and strength of the circulation, we may have a brief tornado threat to contend with. That could be anytime from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Also, wind gusts could approach tropical storm force in our area Saturday or Sunday. Again, that depends on the eventual track and strength of the circulation.
The remnant circulation departs to our northeast Sunday afternoon, but showers and storms remain in our forecast next week. However, they probably won’t be as widespread and continuous. Otherwise, most of next week features very warm/hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
