A Rare July Front on the Way, Plus Newly Formed Tropical Storm Elsa

WELCOME TO JULY: Today is muggy as tropical moisture remains in place across the state. We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds, but heading into the afternoon, clouds are increasing and these will become those randomly scattered, showers and thunderstorms. Pretty routine for summertime in Alabama, before the storms get going, temperature are heading into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state.

TROPICAL STORM ELSA: Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 48.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 25 mph. An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). Interests along the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

FRIDAY FRONT: A developing trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will allow a surface front to drop into Alabama. This front will be increasing our rain chances and tomorrow looks to be a rather wet day for the state. The will be cloudy with periods of rain and storms, with rain amounts over an inch in most locations. Due to the clouds and rain, high Friday will hold in the 80s.

INDEPENDENCE WEEKEND WEATHER: The front looks to at least push down into South Alabama, south of Montgomery over the weekend. Along and south of the front, rain and storms will be common, so if you are beachbound this weekend, be prepared. For the northern two-thirds of the state, drier air moves into the area, and we expect more sunshine than clouds both Saturday and Sunday with lower humidity levels, and cooler nights. Highs will be around the 90 degree mark both days, while nights will be very comfortable with widespread 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will remain dry for the northern half of the state, but the rest of the week, moisture levels begin to rise and that means scattered showers and storms return to the forecast on a daily basis, mainly between 2PM-11PM. The days will feature a mix of sun and clouds and highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. By midweek, we could have to deal with tropical mischief that could mean big changes in our forecast, but way too early to know.

Have a exceptional Thursday!!!
Ryan