Staying Hot, Active Tropics
This week, a persistent forecast is expected through the middle of the week as the upper-level ridge will remain in place. Expect hot and humid days, muggy nights, with highs in the low to mid 90s with a very small chance of widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on each day. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. A strong short wave will push across the eastern United States on Thursday and keep any moisture from Tropical Depression Nine away from us, but will bring with it a slight increase in moisture levels and lift. We’ll mention a slight uptick to the scattered shower and thunderstorm chances, but risks will still be relatively small, about one in five.
HURRICANE GASTON: Maximum sustained winds for Gaston were at 115 MPH with gusts up to 140 MPH, and was moving to the northwest at 5 MPH. Current forecast track continues to have Gaston to make its curve back to the northeast sometime later tonight or early tomorrow morning, and head back out to open water away from the United States and Bermuda.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT: The center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 73.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. This general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later today, with a turn toward the north forecast on Tuesday or Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). It’s a race to see which depression to be named first. It could be named Hermine or Ian.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE: The former wave Invest 99L finally became a tropical depression on Sunday afternoon. Latest update had the center of Tropical Depression Nine located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be passing north of the north coast of western Cuba today, and moving farther into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Current forecast track has it making a turn back to the north and northeast by Wednesday and making landfall on the northwestern Gulf Coast of Florida, just east of the big bend as a mid-level tropical storm (50 MPH winds). It is forecast to move off into the Atlantic ocean off the northeastern Florida Atlantic Coast by Friday afternoon as a tropical storm. Should be no threat to our weather.
Have a great day!
Ryan
