Staying Dry, Matthew Nearing Florida
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Unseasonably warm weather will continue these two days as mid to upper 80s will persist. Nights will remain calm, quiet, and pleasant with 60s expected. The only bad news is no rain is in the forecast.
HURRICANE MATTHEW: This is the main weather story in the weather world as we are going to see impacts along the U.S. Coastline. First, the latest update from the NHC has the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 77.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).
Now where is it heading? Hurricane warnings are in effect from near Hollywood, FL to north of Daytona Beach. A hurricane watch extends to north into the Carolinas. The official track brings the center to near Cape Canaveral Friday morning then begins the turn. But this parallel track to the coast means that a variety of tropical storm and hurricane conditions will occur all along the East Coast of Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. Just a small deviation of the track could bring a landfall of the center and a higher storm surge and wind impact for areas near and to the right of the center. 4-7inches of rain is expected, and storm surge could reach 5-8 feet in the worst case scenario, with widespread 3-6 feet surge all along the East Coast of Florida.
It started Tuesday night and continues to show up today as the model are now showing a potential loop by Matthew, meaning as it turns northeast, the approaching trough moves north of the system before lifting it completely out. That would allow for Matthew to move back west and threaten the coast of Florida again next week. The idea of a hurricane looping and making a second threat to the Florida coast seems pretty outrageous, but crazy loops have happened before, most recently Ivan in 2004. There is hardly any skill in forecasting the placement and intensity of a tropical cyclone beyond five days, so we just can’t speculate on the final outcome now. But no doubt this will be a very interesting storm to watch.
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 64.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering motion is forecast tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with some weakening anticipated by late Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Matthew indirectly affects Alabama as the counter-clockwise flow around the system will keep our winds out of the north/northeast and breezy at times due to the pressure gradient force. Flow off the continent means we stay dry, and though cooler weather will be pulled south, it will not be as cool as we were hoping, but still cooler than we have been this week. Saturday will have highs in the upper 80s, and lower 80s are expected Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s. No rain is in the forecast, so the long dry spell continues.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Another delightful night for high school football games Friday night… clear with temperatures falling through the 60s.
Auburn will play at Mississippi State Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from 77 at kickoff, to near 81 degrees by the fourth quarter.
Alabama is also on the road; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff)… a perfect evening for football with temperatures falling from 67 at kickoff into the 50s by the fourth quarter. The sky will be clear.
FOR NEXT WEEK: A persistence forecast is best and perfectly sums up October weather in Alabama. Expect sunny pleasant days, clear cool nights. Temperatures should be in the 80s for highs, while lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
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Have a great day!
Ryan
