Strong/Severe Storms Today
For today, the upper level trough to our west begins to dig down into the Southeast and becomes negatively tilted, allowing for an enhancement of the upper level dynamics. The surface low over Missouri, will track northeast into Indiana and will also enhance the wind fields even more.
With the warm front north of the area, the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business, and instability values will rise rapidly during the day; surface based CAPE values are projected to climb into the 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg range by afternoon, making for a very a volatile atmosphere over the state.
With a very warm and unstable air mass in place across the state, and dynamics and shear all coming together, this makes for the potential of a dangerous severe weather outbreak across the Southeast. In the latest convective outlook, which covers all of today, the SPC has a “moderate risk” (level 4 out of 5) area a for much of East and South Alabama. The “enhanced risk” (level 3 out of 5) covers the rest of Alabama back to Mississippi.
The highest threat of tornadoes will come during the late morning and into afternoon/evening hours, during the peak of the daytime heating process. More than likely, there will be lull in the action during the midday hours, but even then a few severe storms will be possible. We will need to be vigilant through the entire day and at least until about 10PM tonight.
THREATS: This is a typical spring severe weather setup for Alabama, and with all the parameters coming together, all modes of severe weather will be possible tomorrow. This will include very large hail (perhaps to the size of baseballs), damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes. With the dynamics and shear that are expected, a few long track, strong/violent tornadoes are possible, especially in the “enhanced” and “moderate” risk areas, which we have already said covers all of Alabama.
Hopefully this will not be as bad as it could be, but this is April in Alabama, our busiest severe weather month in the state, and there are just too many parameters coming together that suggest a big severe weather event. This is nothing we can’t handle and we have seen this all before. We just want folks to know the potential and to please stay weather aware today as this is going to be a very dangerous situation, and likely a high impact event.
THURSDAY-THE WEEKEND: Lets get through tomorrow and we are going to have break in the active weather pattern. The weather through the weekend will be cool and dry. An area of high pressure builds in, Thursday will be breezy and much cooler with a clearing sky and temperatures only around the 60 degree mark. Sunshine will return in full supply Friday, with highs in lower 60s, however, Friday and Saturday mornings, are going to be cold, with lows likely in the 30s, with the possibility of some patchy frost…Growers beware! After the chilly start to Saturday, the afternoon and into Sunday will be very nice with ample sunshine and highs returning to the 70s.
Stay safe today!
Ryan
