Very Warm Today, Strong Storms Possible Overnight

It is another warm and mainly cloudy day across Alabama and we are dealing with some showers and storms today, but many locations remain dry. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s again Tonight, the weather gets more active for the state.

SEVERE STORMS ROUND ONE: The SPC maintains a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for areas north of a line from Demopolis to Verbena to Lafayette and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for the rest of the state south of that line. There is an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for Northwest Alabama, as that is where the better dynamics will be with this event.

And for Thursday, the southern portions of Alabama remain in a “marginal risk” as storms should still be ongoing in the morning and into part of the afternoon.

There is ample instability in place across the state, and there should be moderate shear values, but with the main dynamics remaining to the north, this isn’t a classic severe weather setup for the state. However, there is a threat and we must take it seriously.

TIMING: The main window for severe storms will come from about 10PM Wednesday-3PM Thursday. We are not expecting a line of storms, but more random, discrete cells, so we can’t give a specific times for anyone location.

THREATS: Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong straight line winds and there could be some larger hail reports. The tornado threat is very low over the southern half of Alabama, but it is not zero. For now flooding issues are not expected, but stronger storms will bring a heavy downpour.

CALL TO ACTION: It has been a while since we’ve had to deal with an organized threat for severe storms. Now is this time to prepare and review your severe weather safety plan. Be sure you have a way of hearing warnings if they are needed. NEVER an outdoor siren. The baseline is a NOAA Weather Radio (every home and business needs one!). Be sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone, and download the free Alabama News Network weather app. In your safe place be sure and have helmets for everyone, along with hard sole shoes and a portable airhorn.

SEVERE STORMS ROUND TWO: Another round of strong and/or severe storms is expected Saturday night and early Sunday across Alabama. The SPC has defined a risk of severe thunderstorms for almost all of Alabama on New Year’s Day as a strong cold front will approach.

This could bring a more significant severe thunderstorm threat to the state, with all modes of severe weather possible. But, this is four days out and it is too early to be specific. Let’s get through the threat tonight and tomorrow before we focus on the weekend threat.

WINTER RETURNS: As the front moves through, much colder air will begin to flow into the state on Sunday. Expect a cloudy day with periods of light rain, and falling temperatures. The forecast high in the 60s will most likely be reached during the pre-dawn hours as temperatures will fall through the 50s and 40s during the day with a brisk north wind, and we will be near freezing by daybreak Monday. However, this isn’t the Arctic floodgates opening, just a piece of cold breaking off. The bitterly, long lasting cold air will remain northwest of Alabama for the time being.

For the first few days for 2022, seasonal temps highlight the forecast…highs should be in the 50s, while lows in the 30s are expected, which are closer to where they should be for early January.

Stay weather aware the next several day!!!
Ryan