Hot and Humid Week of Weather
OUR WEATHER SETUP: A very warm and humid air mass is in place across the state, which by itself, with the aid of daytime heating would allow for showers and storms, however the mid and upper level flow across the state is from the northwest. This northwest flow will bring boundaries from thunderstorm complexes well off to the west, and these will enhance uplift across the state, and thus allow for a slightly greater coverage in the storms. One of these complexes is ongoing in Arkansas this morning and it expected to continue east. Along its path, there could be damaging wind gusts, and the SPC has a “marginal risk” for severe storms stretching east into Northwest Alabama and nearly to the Interstate 65 corridor. Once again, the threat with storms will be damaging straight-line wind gusts.
FOR OUR MONDAY: While we watch the complex to the west, it will be another hot and humid day for the state of Alabama and by this afternoon, we are going to be seeing our daily dose of showers and storms roll across the state. Of course, not everyone will see rain today, but where it does occur, it will be very intense. Also, the stronger storms will have frequent and very dangerous lightning, and gusty winds which can easily bring down limbs, and with the very saturated grounds, entire trees. For the most part it will be a hot and humid and our highs will be in the lower 90s again with a mix of sun than clouds.
DEVELOPING DON?: We are heading deeper and deeper in the Atlantic hurricane season, and we are watching the entire basin as conditions are becoming more and more favorable. Not much going on at this time but there is one area of interest to watch this week. A broad low pressure system has remained nearly stationary for the past several hours about 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression after midweek. The disturbance is expected to drift westward for the next day or two, followed a motion toward the west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Over the next five days, the NHC gives this is feature a high, 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. If it does develop, it will be our fourth system of the year and given the name Don.
AMERICA TURNING 241: For the nation’s big DAY tomorrow, a fairly standard forecast for this time of the year. The morning should be dry and mainly sunny, but at the atmosphere heats up, clouds will begin to develop and during the afternoon, showers and storms will be developing as well. Certainly no “washout” but have some backup plans as a storm could impact your locations for an hour or so. Where there are no storms, expect it to be mainly sunny, with hot and humid conditions; highs will range from the lower to mid 90s. Most of the rain/storm activity should be ending just in time for all those firework shows across the area.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Little change in the overall weather pattern. It will be hot and humid with highs in the lowers 90s and we are going to be seeing a mix of sun and clouds each day. We may have to start paying attention to those heat index values as they could begin to approach the lower 100s, which would be advisory criteria for North/Central Alabama. Of course, each day will bring the threat for showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For the upcoming weekend, the models try and bring a front into the state, which would mean slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps lower rain chances. Now it is very hard for a front to make it this far south this time of year so we are not convinced just yet this will happen. As of now, we are going to stick to the standard summer forecast with more sun than clouds, highs in in the upper 80s, and afternoon/evening showers and storms.
Have Marvelous Monday!
Ryan
