Looks and Feels Like August to Me
TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER: Hazy, hot, and humid across Alabama today. We are going to see more sun than clouds with temperatures in the lower and mid 90s, and the heat index will be climbing to the 100°-105° in spots. We will be watching the radar this afternoon as showers and storms are expected to pop up over portions of the state. We are not expecting the coverage or intensity of the storms as we have seen the past few days, but still expect heavy downpours and lightning. For tomorrow, we are going to see rain chances in the 20-40% range; mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Expect a mainly sunny morning, with a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon; highs mostly in the lower and mid 90s.
HURRICANE GERT: At 5:00 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 54.0 West. Gert is moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 39 mph and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Gert is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
ACTIVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC: The African wave train is in full effect as there a three tropical waves we are watching for the potential of development in the coming days well out in the Atlantic.
Feature one: Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 5 days…70 percent.
Feature two: A second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend. Formation chance through 5 days…50 percent.
Feature three: A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Formation chance through 5 days..40 percent.
We are heading into the heart of the season, so we expect the Atlantic to be active. Next three names on the list of names are Harvey, Irma, and Jose.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Perhaps some drier air sneaking into northern portions of the state, which would thin our shower activity out some on both Saturday and Sunday. For now we will go with a partly to mostly sunny sky with randomly placed showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs both days will be in the lower 90s.
FOUR DAYS UNTIL ECLIPSE: I got my solar eclipse glasses today, do you have yours? Make sure the ones you select meet the ISO 12312-2 standards. If you plan on checking out the eclipse Monday, you have to have these in order to prevent damage to your eyes. Homemade filters of even very dark sunglasses are not safe. There are a variety of purpose made eclipse glasses on the market at a variety of price levels, the ones I have were the $1 cardboard ones which you can find at just about any national retailer. Now as far as the forecast, it still looks like a fairly routine summer day. Meaning, we will have a field of scattered or broken cumulus clouds, with potential for a few scattered showers during the eclipse. But, at this point we don’t see anything to suggest that we will be dealing with a total overcast. Bottom line is that the eclipse should be visible for a decent part of Alabama.
Have a great day!
Ryan
