Changes in the Days Ahead
A weak frontal boundary will continue to slide south from the north and the boundary will yield better rain chances area wide as we are expecting an increase in showers and storms. Severe weather is not likely at this point, but a few storms could be strong with winds up to 40 MPH. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and the high should drop back into the lower and mid 90s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The last two days of the work week will be highlighted by drier air that slips into the northern half of the state behind the front. This will push most all of the showers and storms over the southern counties, while the northern half of the state should be dry with ample sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. Also, relatively lower humidity levels as well, which will be somewhat of a treat for August in Alabama.
HELLO AGAIN HARVEY: What was once Tropical Storm Harvey looks to be showing signs of life, and we are expecting Harvey to redevelop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Although thunderstorm activity has increased over the northern portion of the system tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and southwestern Louisiana. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the low this morning.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: We continue to track an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Rain chances will increase some on Saturday with a more typical August afternoon expected with scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms. By Sunday rain looks to begin to overspread the state as the remnants of Harvey lift northeast across Southeast. This will likely continue into the first few days of next week as well, and at this time we are going to go ahead and start increasing the chance for widespread rain and storms Sunday through Tuesday. With more rain and clouds, highs will hold in the lower 80s these days.
Have a Wondrous Wednesday!
Ryan
