A Hint of Fall, Watching Hurricane Irma
FRONT APPROACHING: The first true cool front of the season is heading towards Alabama and will bring in a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm late this afternoon and overnight. Good news, no severe weather is expected, and rain amounts generally less than and half an inch are likely. The showers will end during the morning hours Wednesday, followed by a cooler, drier air mass. The sky should become mainly sunny during the day Wednesday with lower humidity, highs Wednesday will only be in the lower 80s.
LATE WEEK TREAT: Dry, continental air will cover Alabama and the Deep South with sunny pleasant days and clear, cool nights Thursday through Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s are forecast, while lows will be mostly in the 50s. Sure looks like another great weekend for both high school and college football. Of course, by the end of the weekend and early next week, our forecast will depend on Hurricane Irma’s track.
HURRICANE IRMA: At 500 AM AST, the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). All models still show this system making the northward turn, but the key question is just how far west it is before the turn occurs. As of now, it still looks to be a Florida peninsula storm, and those folks need to be making preparations, but after that, still too early to know specifics.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Satellite data indicate that this system is already producing winds near tropical storm force. There is a strong likelihood that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form within the next few days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days..90 percent.
Also, a trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few squalls. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it meanders over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern Mexico during the remainder of the week. Formation chance through 5 days..60 percent. Next names on the list are Jose and Katia.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Ryan
