Noon Weather Update: Waiting on Nate
NEW DAY, SAME FORECAST: Very nice, but warm October weather continues today across Alabama. Ample sunshine, low humidity levels, a nice east breeze at times, and temperatures in the lower and mid 80s in most spots, not too bad at all.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: For the high school games tonight, the sky should be clear with temperatures falling from around 80 degrees at kickoff, through the 70s during the game.
TROPICAL STORM NATE: At 400 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph, and this general track with a marked increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula early this evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
FORECAST DISCUSSION: We said yesterday, things could and would change, and that has occurred as the track of Nate is now much farther west today. What we know is Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing. However, it is too early to specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any advice given by local officials.
The early afternoon track from the NHC has Nate approaching the southeastern coast of Louisiana Sunday morning as a category one hurricane, and then making landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast during the day Sunday. As stated yesterday, this track is likely to change some in the coming days. There remains even greater uncertainty as far as the intensity forecast of the system as well. There is a lot to watch over the next 24 hours in regards to the system.
One the current track, much of Alabama is now to the east of the center of circulation, the “bad side” of the storm, and that means the threat for rain, wind, and tornadoes appears to be increasing. Rain amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible across the state, with most of the rain coming Saturday night, Sunday and into Monday.
Being on the east side of the system, there is a tornado threat, but depending on the track of the system, it remains too early to know if there will be a tornado threat inland across Alabama Saturday night and Sunday. We note SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe weather defined for the Central Gulf Coast Saturday; and for much of South Alabama on Sunday, as a few isolated tornadoes are possible there and at this time the greatest threat of tornadoes will be over southern portions of the state. Once again, this is likely to change as well in the coming days.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: With a tropical system in the Gulf, things will change quickly through the weekend. Our Saturday looks to start off dry, but clouds should be increasing through the day with increasing winds as well. Scattered showers and a few storms are possible across the entire state, but the greatest coverage will be across southern portions of the state. The more widespread rain should come Saturday night and Sunday.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECAST: Auburn hosts Ole Miss Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures rising from near 78 degrees at kickoff into the low 80s by the final whistle. A few widely scattered showers are possible.
Alabama is on the road; they will take on the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday in College Station, Texas Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff). The sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 88 degrees at kickoff, to near 80 by the end of the game.
INTO NEXT WEEK: Scattered showers will linger across the state for the first half of the week, then much cooler and drier air will flow into the state by the second half of the week. It will be feeling like fall across all of Alabama with highs dropping into the 70s and lows in the 50s.
MAJOR SPACE WEATHER EVENT ON MARS: Last month, a human astronaut standing on the surface of Mars could have seen something amazing. The night sky of the Red Planet turned green in a global display of Northern Lights. Unfortunately, the same astronaut would have been irradiated by high energy particles from the sun. For three days in mid-September a solar storm enveloped Mars, crossing thresholds of ground-level radiation and auroras that orbiters and rovers had never seen before. Such global events on Mars may be more common than previously thought.
Stay weather aware!
Ryan
