Another Heat Advisory & Watching the Gulf

Hot and humid weather highlights the forecast again today. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with scattered, random showers and storms possible at anytime, but the greatest coverage will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will produce tremendous amounts of lightning and intense rainfall. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper and 90s and heat indices will be well over 100°, likely exceeding 105° in many locations and is why a heat advisory has been issued.

HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED: Heat Advisory in effect from noon to 7 PM today as the combination of heat and humidity will cause heat indices to reach of exceed 105°.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and check up on relatives and neighbors.

WATCHING THE GULF: Latest update as of 2AM EDT from NHC: A broad low pressure area located over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts, and interests there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

UNSETTLED WEATHER AHEAD: As this system gets better organized in the coming days it should ultimately become a tropical storm (the name will be Barry). It will drift slowly westward, and will bring wet/unsettled weather to the Central Gulf Coast and inland parts of Alabama tomorrow through at least Friday. Once we get an established center in the Gulf, there will be much greater confidence in impact forecasts. That should happen over the next 12 hours.

For much of Alabama, the combination of deep tropical moisture feeding northward, and a surface front approaching from the north, will mean a good chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with better chances especially tomorrow and Friday. There will be breaks in the rain, of course. There should be a slow decrease in the number of showers and storms for inland parts of Alabama over the weekend as “Barry” drifts westward.

The system should drift inland over Louisiana at some point over the weekend. As you look at forecast and model tracks, don’t focus on the circulation center too much. The rain shield associated with the tropical storm will extend a few hundred miles to the east, on the “wet side” of the storm, which is where Alabama is located.

NEXT WEEK: The weather trends back toward standard summer conditions, with hot and humid days and highs in the lower and mid 90s. Of course each day will feature the risk of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Have a great day and stay cool!
Ryan