Very HOT Start to Week

VERY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEEK AHEAD: With Humberto staying well to the east of the area, we are not going to be getting any heat relief from this system in the form of rain. If anything, sinking air around the system means our rain chances will actually fall to near zero, and highs will once again climb higher. The first half the week looks to feature more blistering heat for all of Alabama as we are expecting highs once again in the upper 90s to near 100°. There certainly could be a random afternoon storm somewhere, but I wouldn’t count on it. By the end of the week, it looks like the ridge finally begins to break down as an easterly wedge develops which would at least allow for temps to fall back closer to 90° for afternoon highs, which are still well above average for this time of year. Unfortunately, the next 7-10 days, there is just know real signs of beneficial rains for Alabama, and with the very hot temperatures, drought conditions are going to be getting worse.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today. An east-northeastward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is forecast to approach Bermuda late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

REST OF TROPICS: Well we are in the heart of hurricane season, so you’d expect there to be several areas of interest to watch, and that is what we have today…

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. Little, if any, development of this system is expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast tonight or Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast later this week. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan