Routine August Weather; Fred and Maybe Grace Too

HEAT, HUMIDITY, DAILY STORMS: New day, same forecast as Alabama’s weather will not be changing much as we head into the weekend. The days continue to feature a mix of sun and clouds while afternoon temperatures climb into the low and mid 90s. Heat index values are over 100°, and could climb over 105° at times, which is advisory criteria for Central Alabama. Today no Heat Advisory in effect, but it will still be hot and very humid.

During the afternoon and evening hours, we continue to see scattered showers and storms meandering about the Alabama. Most of the showers and storms occur from 12PM-10PM daily with the odds of any one spot getting wet reach day are in the 45-55 percent range. Some storms could be strong at times with gusty winds, tremendous amounts of lightning, which causes window shaking thunder. Also, some locations will see a soaking, which could cause some isolated flash flooding, but just down the road it will be dry. Again, these storms are completely random, and you just have to watch radar trends when they start developing.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED: Latest update from NHC: Fred weakened overnight as it moves across Hispaniola, but the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 73.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

For now, the NHC is keeping the system under hurricane strength through the time of landfall, somewhere along the Northern Gulf Coast near Apalachicola. However, remember 3 and 4 day NHC track forecasts have average errors of 175 and 200 miles, respectively. Meaning, of course, the forecast of the track and intensity could easily change in coming days.

Remember, the main impact (in terms of wind, rain, storm surge, isolated tornadoes) will be along and east of the circulation center. The current forecast keeps the Alabama Gulf Coast, and the western part of the Florida Panhandle (Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Navarre Beach, Destin) on the “good”, west, offshore flow side. If you have a beach trip planned for this weekend and early next week, monitor Fred’s progress and check updates to the forecast. I would not make any changes to your plans now.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a tropical wave located about 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent. This could become Grace.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No real change in the weather pattern as we approach the weekend, so we will stick with a persistence forecast. Partly sunny, hot and humid days, with scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs both days will be in the low 90s. Rain chances will remain in the 40-60 percent range. There could be an increase in rain activity across Southeast Alabama by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as Fred approaches the eastern Florida Panhandle.

NEXT WEEK: The rain coverage on Monday and Tuesday will depend on the Fred’s overall track, but there is clearly the likelihood that deep tropical moisture in place these two days will result in a much high coverage of showers and storms. For the rest of the week, routine August weather with a partly sunny sky and scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s through the week.

Have an exceptional Thursday!!!
Ryan