Heat Advisory Issued & Tropical Troubles Brewing

Hot and humid weather highlight the forecast today and tomorrow. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with scattered, random showers and storms possible at anytime, but the greatest coverage will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will produce tremendous amounts of lightning and intense rainfall. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper and 90s and heat indices will be well over 100°, likely exceeding 105° in many locations and is why a heat advisory has been issued.

HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED: Heat Advisory in effect from noon to 7 PM today as the combination of heat and humidity will cause heat indices to reach of exceed 105°.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and check up on relatives and neighbors.

TROPICAL MISCHIEF: Latest update as of 2AM EDT from NHC: A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Once the disturbance is over water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

The area of interest currently given the name of Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center is located over southwestern Georgia and is drifting to the south-southwest toward the northern Gulf of Mexico. It should cross over the coastline around Panama City Beach and move out over the northern Gulf later today.

With water temperatures averaging between 85-88 degrees along and just off of the Gulf Coast and a lack of wind shear in place, the low will gain tropical characteristics quickly as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf. Once over the waters, we should see a tropical depression form rather quickly and if it reaches tropical storm intensity, it will be called Barry.

Most models take it toward the coastline of Texas and Louisiana, making landfall over the weekend. However, at this point, it is still too early to make a forecast on its path and potential impacts until it gets better organized in the coming days…stay tuned.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: By these days, we should have a better handle on the developments in the Gulf. The low should be developing and deep Gulf moisture should begin to head inland, meaning rain chance should be increasing from south to north across the state. For now, we will forecast scattered to numerous showers and storms possible at any time with the higher concentration over the southern half of the area. The sky will be partly to mostly cloudy and highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days.

WEEKEND WEATHER: The threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continues across the area on Saturday and Sunday, but we will not know the true impact of these until we get a better handle on what the tropical disturbance is going to do. For now, we’ll go with a chance of scattered showers and storms throughout each day with the higher concentration of those coming during the main heating of the day. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s on both days.

Have a great day!
Ryan