Higher Rain Chances Through the Weekend

BARRY TRACKING WEST: At 400 AM CDT, the broad circulation center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 90.2 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph. A track toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana tonight or Saturday, and then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, a few hours ago, indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane tonight or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure estimated from a surface observations nearby was 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA: First off, tropical rain bands will extend out to the east of the center of circulation for a few hundred miles, so don’t think just areas near the center of the storm will feel the impacts. With Alabama staying on the east side of the storm, the “wet side”, impacts on Alabama’s weather will be pretty big through the weekend and into early next week.

Showers and storms become more numerous today and over the weekend as tropical moisture deepens, and Barry passes just to the west. Expect occasional tropical downpours these three days. Highs should be in lower 90s today, with upper 80s Saturday and Sunday due to clouds and showers. We do note, with any landfalling tropical system, there is a low-end tornado threat and there is the possibility that this threat could develop over portions of West Alabama both Saturday and Sunday as Barry moves inland.

However, the main concern from this system will come from heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding. The heaviest rain should be on the western side of the state, closer to the center of the tropical system as it moves northward.

QPF output continues to change, but the general idea is for much of Alabama, a nice soaking rain event is expect through the weekend with 1-3 inches possible. However, it would not be out of the question for some areas to receive higher amounts, especially across West Alabama and down along the coast where totals of 4-6 inches of rain are possible.

NEXT WEEK: To start the week, the deep layer of tropical moisture will continue to cover Alabama, meaning the threat for occasional showers and storms will persist Monday and Tuesday, with highs near 90°. For the second half of next week, the weather looks to trend back toward a more standard summer pattern, with hot and humid days and highs in the lower 90s. Of course each day will feature the risk of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Have a great day and enjoy the rain, we all need it!
Ryan