Numerous Daily Afternoon Shower and Storms

The upper-ridge has slid back to the west, allowing for a more active weather pattern for Alabama this week. Humidity values will be high each day, but afternoon highs this week will be mostly in the upper 80s and lower for South and Central Alabama; gone are the triple digits for now.

We have a weak boundary stalled across the state; it along with lots of moisture will allow for numerous showers and storms across the Alabama landscape each day this week. Rain and storms are possible at anytime, but the greatest coverage will come during the afternoon and evening hours, between 1PM and 10PM. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 50-70 percent if you like the numbers game, but it won’t rain everywhere every day, but mostly places stand a good chance of seeing several downpours this week.

Summer storms can pack a punch; the main issue is lightning. Remember, “when thunder roars get indoors”… when you hear thunder, go inside (or into a vehicle) even if it is not raining. Also, they can produce tropical downpours which can lead to areas of isolated flash flooding, plus it is not entirely out of the question to have a few severe storms along the way this week, with gusty winds the main threat. It is very hard to know exactly where storms will occur, you just have to watch radar trends through the day.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the long holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will try and rebuild, so afternoon highs will likely rise into the low to mid 90s by the middle and end of next week. Partly sunny days, afternoon and evening storms become more widely scattered.

IN THE TROPICS: NHC is waiting on Bonnie: At 500 AM AST, the poorly defined disturbance was centered near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 55.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph. A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Also there are two other features the NHC is monitoring.

1. A surface trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. While shower and thunderstorm activity with this system is currently limited, surface pressures have fallen some over the last 24 hours. Some additional development of this system is possible as it moves generally westward at 5-10 mph and approaches the coast of Texas during the next few days. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave to its east over the next several days, and some gradual development is possible later this week while the overall system moves west- northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Have a great day!!!
Ryan