Much Needed, Higher Rain Chances Ahead

FRIDAY & THE WEEKEND: The air will become more unstable these days as colder air aloft moves in over the state and accordingly will cause an increase in the number of showers and storms today through Sunday. We should see a generous supply of rain and storms all three days, with the highest coverage of activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Odds of any one spot getting wet will be in the 50-70% range during this time. Now, it won’t rain all the time and not everyone will see the rain, and we should see periods of sun as well. Highs should be in the lower 90s and it will remain very muggy.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: A passing shower or storm is very possible for the high school games across Alabama this evening, but it won’t rain at all stadiums. This means potential for a few lightning delays; temperatures will be in the mid 80s at kickoff.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday, Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. By midweek, the global models are continuing to show a front making its way into Alabama and pushing down to at least the Gulf Coast. If this occurs, a drier, continental air mass could move into Alabama for the second half next week. This pattern would suggest much lower humidity, and cooler temperatures with no threat of rain.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Chantal is a weak tropical depression meandering about the North/Central Atlantic. At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 40.9 West. Chantal is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph and is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Chantal is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Elsewhere, Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is located between the southeastern coast of Florida and Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas. The system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend primarily northeast of the center over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over Florida later today, which should limit development during the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves back over the Atlantic waters, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves near the coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central Florida during the next few days. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan