Very Hot Temps and Watching the Tropics

STAYING HOT: Today and tomorrow, expect the days to feature a mostly sunny sky and hot temperatures with highs in the upper 90s. Also, both days will feature a few, random, afternoon storms; these will be few and far between, but where they do pop-up, they could certainly pack a punch, with lots of lightning, gusty winds, and intense rainfall. Rain chances are only around 10% today and tomorrow.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, showers and storms will be widely spaced with a mainly sunny sky along with a high in the mid 90s. On Sunday, rain chances should begin to increase as a tropical feature moves northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and we should see more clouds and rain spread from south to north through the state during the day, and this should at least keep our temperatures closer to 90° for most locations. However, this all depends on the track of the system in the Gulf.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: The sky should be mostly clear for the high school games Friday night, with temperatures falling from the mid 80s at kickoff, to near 80 by the final whistle.

Saturday, Alabama travels to Columbia to take on South Carolina (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature close to 90 degrees, then falling back slightly into the upper 80s by the fourth quarter.

Auburn hosts Kent State Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… we can’t rule out the risk of a passing shower during the game, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling from around 88 at kickoff, into the low 80s by the game.

FIRST HALF OF WEEK: For now, if the tropical feature works north across the state, the higher rain chances will continue for Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday. We could see more clouds than sun these days and highs could hold in the 80s. Once again, this will only happen if the system moves into the Gulf and up towards Alabama. Forecast confidence is not great for now, but we could see higher rain chances these days, but there is still a lot to watch in the coming days, and a lot of the forecast depends on the track and potential intensity of this system. The GFS (American model) shows a pattern that certainly favors some much needed, and very beneficial rain for Alabama. However, the European model shows the feature staying east of Florida, which would mean we could continue to stay high and dry. Towards the end of the week, we should see a decrease in the coverage of showers and storms with highs likely back in the lower to mid 90s by Thursday and Friday.

IN THE TROPICS: For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although limited development of this system is anticipated today, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent. This is the feature that we will be watching over the weekend as it could bring a lot of moisture into the state.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward over the tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent. This is another feature that we will need to keep eye on as we roll into next week.

Have a great day!
Ryan