Showers and Storms Return to Forecast; Very Active in the Tropics

TODAY/TOMORROW: Moisture levels are on the rise, meaning our rain chances will begin to increase as well. For today, we will bring scattered showers and storms back to the forecast, with an even greater of them Friday. These days will be partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For the upcoming weekend, expect a mix of sun and clouds both Saturday and Sunday, with scattered to perhaps numerous showers or storms both days as rain chances increase to the 60/70 percent range. No weekend “wash out”, just know the radar will be active as times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Not much change; highs will remain in the 80s and 90s. Partly sunny days with the usual risk of random, scattered showers and storms on a daily basis, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours.

IN THE TROPICS: It is very active and it should be as today is the statistical peak of the season. We have two active storms, and four other areas of interest.

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 49.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday evening and continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Restrengthening is expected to commence over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

TROPICAL STORM RENE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 34.8 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

OTHER FEATURES: 1. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area of of the coast of the Carolinas has weakened to a trough. The system is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and move inland over eastern North Carolina this afternoon, and the chances for significant development by that time are decreasing. Interests along the coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm is centered a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today. Gradual development is anticipated once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions could be conducive for slow development over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week while the wave moves slowly westward. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

We only four names left until we have to use the Greek Alphabet. Those names are Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.

Have an incredible Thursday!
Ryan