Midday Update: Severe Weather Outbreak Imminent

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT: The trends as far as the Alabama Weather situation do not look good, as a significant, and life-threatening severe weather outbreak will occur this afternoon, evening, and overnight. Please, please, please, be prepared and weather aware the next 24 hours.

In fact, a A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch is in effect until 7PM. An outbreak of strong, violent tornadoes is imminent.

THE SET-UP: A very dynamic storm system associated with a negatively tilted upper trough with strong wind fields is heading towards Alabama, accompanied by a deep surface low. The warm front has been lifting north across the state, and allowed for morning showers and storms across the area. In its wake, a very warm, highly-sheared, and unstable airmass is developing across the state today.

PLACEMENT: The SPC has extended the “high risk” (level 5/5) farther east and now includes most of West Alabama and much of Central Alabama, including the Birmingham metro, as well as the cities of Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Fayette, Clanton, and Demopolis, most of the rest of the state is in a “moderate risk” (level 4/5). Please don’t get too hung up in risk categories or map colors…just understand the entire state has a significant risk of severe storms.

TIMING: Now through 6AM Thursday is when the core threat will impact Alabama. We may see two rounds of severe storms with this event. Very soon, strong thunderstorms should begin developing over East Mississippi and West Alabama, and these will be discrete supercells. A supercell is a rotating thunderstorm. These will likely reach severe limits quickly as they push east across Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours.

Round two, will come later tonight and through the pre-dawn hours tomorrow as the actual front swings through the state and the risk for additional/significant tornadoes is anticipated to last through the overnight hours, focused particularly across much of Alabama.

THREATS: The atmosphere is quite volatile over Alabama and all types of severe weather are expected. There is the potential for large hail (up to tennis ball size), damaging winds (up to 80 mph), and tornadoes. Strong/violent (EF2+), long-track tornadoes are expected across the Deep South and perhaps Alabama considering the atmospheric setup.

RAINFALL: Widespread flash flooding is not expected, but many locations could receive 1-2 inches of rain. However, there could be a some isolated flooding issues.

CALL TO ACTION: You should have all aspects of your weather safety plan ready to go as the threat for severe storms develops and moves into Alabama. You have got to have multiple, reliable ways to receive severe weather notifications, especially since this event will continue into the overnight hours.

Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone. Look under notifications. Tornado warnings, flash flood warnings, and amber alerts are pushed to your phone via WEA, and it doesn’t involve an app. Download the Alabama News Network Weather App for your phone also to push alerts.

You can select the warnings you receive, and it works well and is very reliable. Also, a NOAA Wether Radio should be a part of every home, and the most popular NOAA Weather radio is the Midland WR-120. You can find it at most big box retailers, and online sellers like Amazon. NEVER rely on an outdoor siren. NEVER.

Know your safe place. In a site built home, it is a small room, on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows. And, in that safe place, have helmets for everyone (this means adults too!). We also recommend a portable airhorn for everyone (to alert first responders if you need help), and hard soled shoes in case you have to walk over a tornado debris field.

You can’t stay in a mobile home during a tornado warning. Know where you are going, and how to get there quickly. If there is no community shelter nearby, go to a business like a gas station, convenience store, or restaurant that is open 24/7.

Be sure you can find your home on a map. Identify the county you are in, and the ones surrounding you. Map skill is very important on severe weather days!

Please help us by spreading the word about this serious threat. Many folks don’t pay close attention to the weather…tell your relatives, friends, and neighbors and help us get them ready. We don’t share this to scare anyone…we simply have a responsibility to let you know the danger.

For those with a weather phobia, or high anxiety, understand even on a big severe weather day odds of any one home being hit by a tornado are still very low. Just be sure you can hear warnings, have a good plan, and we will get through the day together.

Stay weather aware and safe!!!
Ryan