Low Weekend Rain Chances, Plus The Heat Ramps Up
TODAY: An expansive ridge is building over the Southwest and extending
eastward into the Deep South. Dry mid-level air will accompany
northerly mean flow, but despite this and the suppressive
nature of the ridge, plenty of moisture is available to support
Chance PoPs as summertime convective processes increase this
afternoon. The overall coverage should still be less than what we’ve
seen over the past week or so.
The high amounts of low-level & surface moisture is also
resulting in low to mid 70s dew points. This will cause heat
indices to range from 100-104 degrees. Some spots may see brief
instances near Heat Advisory criteria both today and tomorrow, but
at this time appear isolated enough to forego issuance of an
Advisory. Trends will be monitored closely.
OUT ON THE TOWN: Overnight conditions will be conducive for patchy fog again due to
the moist ground conditions, but especially near bodies of water. A
front will move towards the Tennessee Valley tomorrow afternoon, but
most of the lift associated with it will stay to our north during
the short term period. Temperatures will hover in the mid 70s, and muggy conditions will remain.
LONG TERM: A broad ridge pattern persists across much of the CONUS as the upper
level Rossby wave pattern becomes more zonal across the northern
parts of the CONUS. A weak boundary is expected to push southward
under otherwise stagnant flow Monday through Tuesday as an upper
trough digs through the northern Appalachians. This weak boundary
will move into Central AL Monday afternoon through Tuesday leading
to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon along
the boundary. The question is going to be where exactly the boundary
is located either afternoon. For now, I’ve trended rain/thunderstorm
chances up given increasing model guidance for slightly higher than
normal coverage of convective activity. This convective coverage
will also play a significant role in the temperature forecasts.
Given the moist air mass in place and the saturated grounds,
dew points will be running on the warm side, which could lead to heat
indices approaching or exceeding 105 degrees as we begin next week.
Monday afternoon will have slightly lower coverage of precip, so I
have a little more confidence that several locations will exceed 105
degree heat index.
WAKE UP WEATHER: Temperatures will already be approaching 80 by morning time, with another hot and muggy day in store for us.
8 DAY FORECAST: Rain chances stay mostly minimal throughout the week, with most rain and storms coming in the form of isolated and scattered coverage. Temperatures will be hovering around average. with some days potentially seeing upper 90s. Heat index values throughout the week could easily pass 100 and approach 105.
