Hot, Humid, Daily Storms, and Fred Eying the Northern Gulf Coast

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Hot and humid weather persist across the state with daily showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend. The days will continue to feature a mix of sun and clouds; afternoon temperatures will be the low and mid 90s and heat index values are over 100°.

Of course, there is heat relief daily, in the form of scattered showers and storms meandering about the Alabama landscape. And as we have seen in recent days, some storms will be strong and locally severe at times with gusty winds, tremendous amounts of lightning, and window shaking thunder. Also, torrential tropical downpours are occurring and have and could cause areas isolated flash flooding. Again, these storms are completely random, and you just have to watch radar trends when they start developing. Most of the showers and storms will come from 12PM-10PM daily with the odds of any one spot getting wet reach day are in the 40-60 percent range. Coverage of showers and storms could be a little higher by Sunday, especially over the southeast part of the state, as deeper tropical moisture spreads northward in association with Fred

SPEAKING OF FRED: Latest update from NHC — The center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

For now the system is expected to remain below hurricane strength in the Gulf due to interaction with the Florida peninsula and southwest winds aloft creating shear over the system. The main wind, rain, and storm surge impact will be east of the circulation center, over the Florida peninsula and North Florida. Most of the Florida panhandle and the Alabama Gulf coast should remain on the “good”, drier, west side of the system (places like Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Navarre Beach, Destin, and Panama City Beach). However, in those places the rip current danger will be high Sunday and Monday, and there will be some rain.

The heaviest rain in association with Fred is expected to be east of Alabama, over the Florida peninsula, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Still, deeper tropical moisture will be pulled into the state with higher rain coverage Sunday into early next week for much of Alabama. Remember this forecast CAN change some of the coming days, so pay attention to any updates.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A small low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night, and Virgin Islands on Sunday. Interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. This will likely become Grace.

NEXT WEEK: The rain coverage on Monday and Tuesday will depend on the Fred’s overall track, but due to deep tropical moisture being in place these two days, the forecast will likely features numerous showers and storms. For the rest of the week, routine August weather with a partly sunny sky and scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s across the state through the week.

Have an outstanding and adventurous Friday!!!
Ryan