Noon Update: Near Record Warmth this Week
SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK: Governor Kay Ivey has declared February 18-23rd, 2018, as Severe Weather Awareness Week in Alabama. The National Weather Service, the Alabama Emergency Management Agency, and other supporting organizations ask for your help in providing the public with information about severe weather safety. Advance planning and increased awareness will help residents of Alabama survive these deadly storms.
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK: A very mild start to our Monday with most locations in the 50s, and watch for areas of patchy dense fog this morning. Now for the week ahead, much warmer days are ahead for much of the Southeast as the big, warm ridge centered near the Bahamas, continues to build northward setting the stage for some serious rain in the Middle Mississippi River Valley and the potential for record warmth across Alabama and much of the Southeast. Highs today, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be dancing in the vicinity of the lower 80s. Here are the record highs from the NWS for Montgomery for the next three days: 83 on today (19th), 80 on Tuesday (20th), and 81 on Wednesday (21st), so the potential for us to see new record values over the next several days is pretty good.
WET TIMES AHEAD TO OUR NORTHWEST: A frontal boundary will be in place across the Middle Mississippi River Valley and this region of the country will be positioned under the moisture flowing out of the Pacific. The 7-day forecast for precipitation shows a large swath stretching from Northeast Texas to the Central Great Lakes could see rainfall amounts of 2 to 7 inches through Sunday morning.
For us in Alabama, there will be a substantial precipitation gradient from the northwest corner of the state to the southeast corner with practically nothing for Southeast Alabama and around 2.5 inches in Northwest Alabama. Fortunately, over the next three days there does not appear to be any threat for severe weather. Model uncertainty beyond three days removes any kind of certainty for Days 4 and 5 when the front does push farther into the Southeast. We’ll need to watch this time frame in later model runs for the potential for a “marginal” or “slight” risk.
We will mention rain showers will be possible each day, but it still appears that the best chances for rain for Central Alabama will come Wednesday into Thursday as the front makes its approach.
ACROSS THE USA: A large storm system will extend from the West Coast to the Great Lakes during the next couple days bringing hazardous weather to many parts of the country. Heavy snow is expected in the higher terrain of the West, along with very strong winds. Snow and ice will disrupt travel in parts of the Midwest, and heavy rain could cause widespread flooding in the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weekend may bring rain and storms, with both models pretty confident that the front finally makes its way through the area. It will still be mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s. The best rain chances look like they could arrive late Sunday into Monday, but showers are possible on Saturday. We will have to watch things Sunday as there could be some stronger storms along the way too.
INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: The ridge remains present into early next week, but a strong upper trough pushes into the Middle Mississippi River Valley as we head towards early March. Much too far into the future to make a forecast, but the trough does have a look suggestive of the potential for severe weather for portions of the Southeast. Beyond that, the long range models are suggesting the overall pattern develops a deep trough over the eastern third of the country, meaning cold air returns, and why we keep mentioning that we are not done with winter and try not to catch spring-fever yet…
GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: A G1-class geomagnetic storm is underway on Feb. 19th as Earth enters a stream of fast-moving solar wind. G1-class storms are relatively minor and have little effect on satellites or global power grids. However, they can spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle and confuse migratory animals that navigate using magnetism at high latitudes.
Have a great day!
Ryan
