Noon Update: New Day, New Record High Expected
Moisture starts to back away from Central Alabama today as the ridge over the Southeast starts to strengthen, pushing most of the shower activity well north and west of the area. Our sky will be partly to mostly cloudy and we can’t rule out a few stray showers throughout the day, but I think most of us stay dry today. Afternoon highs will once again be unseasonably warm, making it into the lower and mid-80s. We fully expect a new record high for Montgomery again today as we are forecasting a high of 84° this afternoon, which will beat the old record of 80° set back in 1897. This evening and throughout the overnight hours will be dry and temperatures will continue to be mild, only dropping to the low to mid 60s.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: More record warmth on a daily basis these two days and each day we will have a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs in the lower 80s. These temperatures are twenty degrees above the average high of 63° for late February, and remain in record territory. As far as rain chances, we will maintain the risk of isolated showers through Friday, but the really organized rain will remain to the west along the sharp cold front over East Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and far West Tennessee. Showers during the day Saturday should be widely spaced.
STORMY START TO SUNDAY: A band of organized showers and thunderstorms will push through the state late Saturday night and Sunday morning as the cold front to the west gets a southward nudge. The SPC has a risk of severe storms defined for the northwest corner of the state late Saturday night, but the overall threat looks low for the rest of Alabama due to the lack of instability and the main dynamic support passing well to the north up near the Great Lakes. For now, it looks like the main window for rain and storms over the weekend will come from about 12:00 midnight Saturday night through 12:00 noon Sunday. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4″ are likely, so no flooding issues. Sunday will be cooler with a high in the lower 70s.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The cold front stalls over South Alabama Sunday night, and as a wave of low pressure moves along the front Monday. This means the weather Monday will be fairly wet and unsettled with periods of rain. The high Monday will be in the 60s. The models continues to advertise drier air on Tuesday, but there will be some risk of showers each day Wednesday through Friday as moist air returns. Highs through the week will be generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s with lows around 50°, closer to seasonal values this time of year.
Have a great day!
Ryan
