Nice Late August Weather; Dorian Gaining Strength

Our Friday is featuring a sunny sky with temperatures heading towards the lower 90s across South/Central Alabama this afternoon. Our dewpoints are lower, making for lower humidity levels again today, which is keeping it comfortable for late August in Alabama. Expect pleasant temps again tomorrow morning with most spots in the 60s. For the long Labor Day Weekend, moisture levels will rise a bit each day, and we will mention widely scattered showers/storms all three days, but nothing widespread and the sky will be partly to mostly sunny for the most part. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: A large hole in the sun’s atmosphere is facing Earth, spewing a stream of solar wind in our direction. Minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms are possible as early as Aug. 31st when the gaseous material arrives. This is the same large hole that targeted Earth in early August and caused auroras to be visible in multiple northern-tier US States.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Perfect weather for high school football games across the state tonight. Clear, low humidity, with temperatures falling from the low 80s at kickoff into the 70s during the second half.

Alabama will take on Duke in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta (2:30p CT kickoff)… the game will be played indoors (Mercedes Benz Stadium), but outside the sky will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will peak close to 90 in Atlanta Saturday afternoon.

Auburn travels to Dallas/Fort Worth to take Oregon at AT&T Stadium Saturday evening (6:30p CT kickoff). Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s during the day Saturday with a sunny sky, falling though the 80s during the game.

HURRICANE DORIAN: At 500 AM AST, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to enter a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which should allow its structure to become more well developed. Dorian is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later today and maintain that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend.

Dorian is now being steered between a mid-tropospheric high centered near Bermuda and a mid-/upper-level low located over the Bahamas. The high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming established over the western Atlantic during the next several days. By Monday these steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula. The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, where the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend has continued to increase. Residents should begin to execute their hurricane plans and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of hazardous weather conditions that could last for a couple of days in parts of Florida early next week.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa. Some development of this system is possible early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather next week will depend on how Dorian behaves. Model consistency still shows Dorian will recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies east of Alabama, keeping our state on the “dry side” of the system. For now we expect little impact in Alabama, with the storm staying east of us, but we know things can certainly change. There will be little, if any direct impact, along the Gulf Coast over the Labor Day weekend (places like Gulf Shores, Destin, and Panama City Beach). A few showers and storms are possible there, each afternoon, but it is the typical late summer activity. Other than Dorian, the weather for the first week of September looks pretty routine with partly to mostly sunny days and highs in the lower 90s, which is pretty close to average for the early September. There will remain the chance for a few afternoon showers and storms, but these will be few and far between.

Have a great day!
Ryan