Pleasant Mornings; No Signs of Beneficial Rain

Today expect mainly sunny conditions and low humidity as a very dry air mass remains in place across the state. We will still have breezy easterly winds at times and highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across South/Central Alabama. With the dry air mass in place, the next several nights will be very comfortable as lows settle well down in the 60s during the morning hours.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: Clear for the high school games tonight with temperatures falling from the mid 80s at kickoff, into the low and mid 70s by the second half.

LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR: Not good news as it shows an expanding drought in Alabama. Now 48% of the state is at least Level 1, and about 15% of Alabama is in moderate or severe drought. No significant rain expected in Alabama the next 7-10 days means conditions will continue to get worse.

WEEKEND WEATHER: The very dry air mass remains in place, so expect sunny days and fair nights with highs in the lower 90s, while nights will be comfortable with lows staying well down into the 60s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Tomorrow, Alabama will host Southern Mississippi at Bryant-Denny Stadium (11a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 85 at kickoff, to 90 by the final whistle.

Auburn is on the road; they travel to College Station to take on Texas A&M (2:30p CT kickoff)… scattered showers and storms are possible during the game with temperatures generally in the low 90s.

NEXT WEEK: Staying dry for Monday, but a weak surface front approaches the state for midweek and could squeeze out a few isolated showers, but for now this doesn’t look too promising. The ridge will try and build back in over the region and that will keep the forecast mainly dry and highs should be return to the mid 90s in most spots. Fall officially arrives in Alabama at 2:50AM CDT Monday as the Autumnal Equinox occurs, however, the first week of fall is still going to be feeling like summer.

It’s late September and the tropics are very active, as they should be since this is the peak of the season.

HUMBERTO BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY: The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 58.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph. A slower north-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to commence by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HURRICANE JERRY: At 500 AM AST, the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 58.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and some development is possible while it approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend. Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the wave moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Next names up on the list are Karen, Lorenzo, and Melissa.

Have a fantastic Friday and a better weekend!
Ryan