Beneficial Rains in the Days Ahead

MONDAY: We should see more clouds than sun and temperatures will be with mid to upper 70s, with some scattered showers expected throughout the day. Tonight, it will be cloudy, with rain developing, especially after midnight, and spreading across the state.

BENEFICIAL RAIN: The front begins to move north ahead of an upper-level feature moving across the state, and we are going to see widespread rain and storms on Tuesday, and it certainly looks like the type of rain we need across the state to help the drought conditions. Thunderstorms are expected as well, but severe weather is not, but there could certainly be some strong storms mixed in with all the rain. Rainfall totals should be in the 1-3 inch range, and that will certainly be a welcomed sight for sure.

END OF WEEK: We will have a front swing through the state on Wednesday and that will bring an end to the rain early in the day, but clouds will continue to linger. But cooler air will filter into the state, along with drier air and that should eventually erode to clouds away, by Thursday and Friday and we should see very nice fall weather rolling into the weekend with highs in the 70s and lows ranging from the 40s into the 50s. Our next round of rain looks to arrive next weekend, most likely on Sunday.

IN THE TROPICS: Most of the Atlantic continues to be quiet, but the season continues until November 30th. We still have Melissa and a few areas of interest, but we are also getting to that point in the season where things gradually quiet down.

At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 54.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph. A faster east-northeast or east motion is expected later today and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan