All Eyes on the Gulf

EYEING THE GULF: NHC is now giving Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical (or subtropical) depression or storm within the next 48 hours. At 400 AM CDT, the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance again in a few hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles to the north and east of the possible center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning today along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by later today along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States coast from today through Saturday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FOR OUR FRIDAY: Clouds will be increasing due to the tropical system in the Gulf. Rain is expected to move onshore late today, moving into South/Central Alabama overnight and into Saturday, many areas across South and Southeast Alabama should see rain. Winds will be increasing as well overnight with breezy conditions of 15-30 mph, especially after midnight.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: For the high school games tonight, dry weather is expected for most location with temperatures in the 60s. To the south, rain is good possibility for the southern quarter of Alabama as the tropical low approaches.

WEEKEND WEATHER: Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy, breezy, with areas of rain for many locations in South and East Alabama as the tropical low slides over into Georgia. The high Saturday will be in the upper 60s for most spots. Sunday looks dry statewide as the tropical system moves off to the east and we will be in between systems; highs Sunday should be in the lower 80s, with a mix of sun and clouds.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn travels to Fayetteville, Arkansas to take on the Razorbacks Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… showers and thunderstorms are possible during the first half of the game. The kickoff temperature will be close to 64 degrees, rising into the upper 60s by the final whistle.

Alabama will host Tennessee Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (8:00p CT kickoff)… it now looks like the bulk of the rain will remain east of Tuscaloosa, and we are now forecasting dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s. A little light rain is possible during the day, before the game.

NEXT WEEK: Monday should be a very warm day with highs in the 80s. A cold front will be approaching the state late in the day and it will bring a round of showers and storms to Alabama late Monday and Monday night. SPC has the areas of western Alabama in a severe weather risk on their “Day Four” outlook.

For now it looks like the main threat will come from strong straight line winds, but still plenty of time to watch this over the weekend. Behind the front for the middle of the week, the weather looks dry and pleasant, then another cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms late in the week on Friday and it does look like this could bring another round of strong to possibly severe storms to the state.

Have a great day!
Ryan