One More Dry Day; Severe Storms Saturday

It’s a sunny and cold start to the day, but the day itself will feature a few more clouds, and mild temperatures as highs return to the upper 60s. Clouds really begin to increase tonight with lows in the 50s.

RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY: Strong southerly flow develops over Alabama on Friday, which will bring warm, moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico into the state. This will lead to rain and a few storms across Alabama, but severe weather is not expected in Alabama Friday. There severe weather threat is west of the state Friday, where the SPC has an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of East Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and the southeast corner of Oklahoma.

Along with the rain Friday, expect a warm day with highs in the lower 70s.

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY: A deep, negatively tilted upper trough and potent low pressure system will interact with a very warm, unstable air mass in place across the state Saturday, causing severe storms and heavy rainfall in Alabama ahead of the surface cold front. The SPC has defined an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3/5) for severe weather for nearly all of Alabama in their “Day 3” outlook for Saturday.

This has the potential to be a significant severe weather event for the state on Saturday as all modes of severe weather are possible, which includes tornadoes, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and hail. We also note, if we see some of those discrete supercells out ahead of the main line, we could see a few strong tornadoes, EF2+, on Saturday.

Once again, based on the large, synoptic scale state of the atmosphere, severe weather will occur on Saturday in Alabama, but as far as the overall threats and impacts, that is still yet to be known and will be determined in the coming days as the small scale (mesoscale) features line up until we get closer to the weekend. These will determine the true impact of the event.

For now, the main window for the core threat of severe weather in Alabama is roughly 10AM-8PM Saturday, but we will have to monitor trends as a few storms could arrive earlier across our western counties.

CALL TO ACTION: Everyone will need a good, reliable way of getting severe weather warnings Saturday if they are needed. Be sure WEA (“emergency alerts”) are enabled on your phone, and download the free Alabama News Network Weather app as well. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and business. Never rely on an outdoor siren.

Identify the safe place in your home…in a site built home, it is a small room on the lowest floor, near the center of the home, and away from windows. Be sure everybody in the family knows where that safe place is, and in that room you need helmets for everyone in your family. We also recommend having a portable air horn for everyone, as well as hard soled shoes. If you live in a mobile home, you cannot stay there if you are in a tornado warning polygon. Know the location of the nearest shelter or site built structure that is available.

RAINFALL: We should also note that rain amounts Friday and Saturday will be in the 1-4 inch range over the state, with the ground pretty saturated, this could lead to some flash flooding issues as well. So along with the severe weather threat, there could be a pretty substantial flooding threat as well.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: The front stops just to our south Sunday, and though Sunday looks mainly dry and cloudy. The front will lift north Sunday night and stall across the state as we roll into next week, meaning an active weather pattern with rain and embedded storms expected Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, adding even more rain to some rather impressive rainfall totals from the weekend, and for now seven day rain totals for the state are expected easily be in the 4-6 inch range.

With the front stalled across the area, temperatures will remain mild for mid January with mid 60s to lower 70s each day.

Have a great day!
Ryan