Significant Threat for Severe Weather Today

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY: Please stay weather aware today as yet another very dangerous and significant threat for severe weather could impact Alabama today. No two events are the same, so don’t think this event will happen like past event. This event is completely different, but it carries its own significant threat and everyone will need to be prepared. It only takes one storm to makes this a very bad day for the state.

To start with, the SPC maintains an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for all of South/Central Alabama. Again, don’t focus on colors or levels on maps, the most important thing to take away from today’s forecast is there is a significant threat of severe storms today.

This is a complicated forecast so let’s dive into what could happen…We are dealing with strong and severe storms this morning across South/Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large hail are possible with any storms this morning, and we have a tornado watch in effect until 1PM across South Alabama.

After the morning storms, again it all depends on what the atmosphere does over the state…for this afternoon, the severe weather threat is more conditional, meaning it may happen it may not…it all depends on if instability can build back in and what is this northward extent of this unstable air, which should be in place across South Alabama today and any small scale boundaries left over from the morning storms.

For areas of Central Alabama, between Montgomery and Birmingham, forecast confidence is low on whether the storms will redevelop, but if they do, they could be strong and severe with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly produce tornadoes…These will be very isolated storms for the most part, but again if they do develop, they could be those isolated supercells which we have to be watched carefully…This is an all or nothing forecast this afternoon, meaning it will happen or it will not.

Across South Alabama, confidence is higher for the threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon as the air will be more unstable and wind fields will be more favorable. Storms which develop, and we are talking about for areas south of Montgomery will be capable of producing large hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and tornadoes with even a few strong (EF2 or higher) tornadoes possible.

CALL TO ACTION: Be prepared and make sure you have all aspects of your severe weather safety plan ready for action. Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings, and an action plan if you are in a tornado warning polygon, take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously too. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and business, properly programmed with a fresh battery in case of power failure. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone… this is not an app, but built into every phone sold in the U.S. Check settings, and notifications, and be sure emergency alerts are on. Have the free Alabama News Network Weather App on your phone as another way of getting warnings. Search the App Store for “ANN Weather” if you don’t have it already. Stay tuned for updates, stay weather aware aware today, and know your action plan if you are in a tornado warning polygon, and pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings as well.

In a site built home, identify the safe place. Small room, lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows. And, in that safe place, have helmets for everyone in the family (including adults!), portable air horns, and hard sole shoes. You CANNOT stay in a mobile home if you are in a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning polygon. Know the closest shelter, and how to get there quickly.

Sheltering from a tornado is first priority when it comes to the COVID-19 situation. A tornado is an immediate threat to life; get to your safe place or shelter and do the best you can to protect yourself from exposure to the virus.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH: Rain amounts of 1-4 inches look likely, with isolated higher amounts, and some flooding issues are likely in some locations.

The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of Central and West Alabama today including to City of Montgomery.

This is April in Alabama, the heart of our severe weather season, so this is not unusual. No two events are the same, so don’t compare this event and threat to past events. This event is completely different, and carries its own significant threat. Everyone will need to be prepared; it only takes one storm to makes this a very bad day for the state.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Most of the day Friday will be dry, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but another fast moving system will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms back to the state late Friday night, as a cold front move into the state. Ahead of the front moisture return looks very limited, and the risk of for rain and storms is low. The sky should clear Saturday afternoon with a high in the 70s. Sunday looks dry and pleasant with ample sunshine along with a high in the 70s and for once, no threat of severe weather.

NEXT WEEK: For now Monday and Tuesday look dry and seasonal, followed by chance of rain and thunderstorms Wednesday with another frontal boundary. For now, severe storms are not expected, but of course this could change over the next week.

Stay weather aware today!!!
Ryan