Warm and Muggy Week; Very Active Tropics
Expect more clouds than sun today with a stray shower possible but not likely. Shower chances will be on the increase tomorrow with mainly cloudy skies. Winds will be a little breezy at times during the daylight hours potentially gusting up to 20 MPH. Highs both days will be around 80°.
Wednesday is Veterans Day, and an approaching front will increase the shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds will continue to be breezy and humidity levels will be rather high for November. Highs will again be on either side of 80°. A front will be moving through Central Alabama early on Thursday and that will keep rain chances in the forecast, but the front looks to stall across the state, meaning temperatures stay warm, clouds linger with scattered showers possible. Highs in the low 80s this week are about ten degrees above average, while lows in the upper 60s, are clouds to fifteen degrees above average for this time of year.
ETA ENTERS GULF: the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. A west to west- southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Two other areas of interest, that will likely become Theta and Iota.
1. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
2. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Stay safe!!!
Ryan
