Rain at Times this Week; More Tropical Mischief

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: A persistent weather pattern means little change in the overall forecast for much of the week. Each day, will feature a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This daytime heating will lead to building instability, which will fuel daily storms that will pop-up across the Alabama landscape. These are completely randomly in placement, and the greatest coverage of activity will come from 1PM-10PM each afternoon and evening.

Anytime this week, a few storms could be strong at times, and a rouge warning or two could be needed for gusty winds. Also, summertime convection produces tremendous amounts of lightning and torrential downpours which can cause their own issues.

By the time we get to Friday and the holiday weekend, rain chances will be on the increase with an approaching frontal boundary and a very tropical air mass in place; expect numerous showers and storms across the state.

IN THE TROPICS: Again, two features of interest, which could become Danny and Elsa in the future.

1. A small low pressure system is located about 300 miles east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, with most of it displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream later this morning, and it has some potential to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by this evening. If the system becomes more organized today, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through tonight. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Be blessed and highly favored today!!!
Ryan