Routine Summer Weather, but Weekend Forecast Changes

TODAY/TOMORROW: These two days will be very muggy as tropical moisture remains in place, meaning both days will feature scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Pretty routine for summertime in Alabama, before the storms get going each day, expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

IN THE TROPICS: Danny has come and gone, but we continue to watch the Atlantic as there are two more features, and one is likely to become Elsa.

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent. We will have to keep an eye on this feature as long range model data suggest it could be a Gulf storm next week.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND: A developing trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will allow a surface front to drop into and stall across Alabama this weekend. On Friday, as the front moves into the state, we are forecasting widespread and numerous showers and storms with highs in the 80s. For Saturday and Sunday, model data now suggest the front will push down into South Alabama or along the Gulf Coast and then stall taking most of the rain and storms down that way. If this occurs, rain chances will be lower across much of Alabama this weekend with only isolated to scattered storms, with highs in the upper 80s. Stay tuned for potential changes for the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: It all depends on the surface front location, but fore now much of next week looks fairly routine for early July in Alabama. Scattered showers and storms daily, mainly between 2PM-11PM, while the overall days will feature a mix of sun and clouds; highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!!!
Ryan