Heat, Humidity, and An Increasing Tropical Threat to the Gulf

The upper ridge weakens some today and tomorrow, and these two days we expect to see some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Again, many locations will stay dry, while many other we will see rain. It comes down to watching radar trends during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs both days will be in the low to mid 90s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A fairly routine late August weekend of weather for Alabama; both days should feature a partly sunny sky with those randomly scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Chance of any one spot seeing rain will be around 40% both days; highs this weekend will be in the low 90s.

IN THE TROPICS: There are no other active systems in the Atlantic, but there are three areas the NHC is monitoring. The next three names are Ida, Julian, and Kate.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

This is one we will have to watch because the models bring this system in the Gulf of Mexico, with the higher landfall probabilities along the upper Texas/Louisiana coasts Monday. But, this could easily change over the next few days. No way of knowing the intensity at this point; we will be watching model trends closely.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

NEXT WEEK: With current model forecast trends suggesting a tropical system moving inland west of Alabama early in the week, meaning higher chance of rain for the first half of the week, but with a tropical system in play four or five days out, there is great uncertainty. Highs next week will be mostly in the upper 80s.

Have an exceptional Thursday!!!
Ryan