Midday Update: Warm Friday Afternoon and the Latest on the Storms Saturday

The warm front continues to lift north through Alabama this afternoon, and is bringing us the clouds and scattered showers, along with much warmer temperatures. At the midday hour, most locations have surged well into the 70s with a southerly breeze.

TO OUR WEST: We are watching storm development to the northwest this afternoon and tonight, where the SPC has defined a “moderate risk” (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms from the Mississippi Delta region northward into parts of Illinois and Indiana. Storms that form in that region will become severe, some strong tornadoes are possible as a widespread severe weather event is anticipated.

The activity northwest of Alabama is expected to evolve into a long squall line after midnight tonight, and will move into the state early tomorrow morning. SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) as far east as Athens, Haleyville, and Millport through 6AM tomorrow morning, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) to Lake Guntersville and Tuscaloosa. Then, after 6AM ,the SPC has most of Alabama is in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for storms tomorrow, while maintaining the “slight risk” for areas north and west of Birmingham.

STORMY SATURDAY: The line will continue to drop south and east through Alabama during the morning hours, likely reaching the Birmingham area before noon, then likely impacting our viewing area from 11AM in West Alabama around Demopolis through 5PM in the southeastern portions of our are. For Montgomery and the River Region, it looks to in 1PM-3PM time frame. The severe weather threat will is not as great for South Alabama as dynamic support will be weakening by then and pulling away from the state.

THREATS: For Alabama, the main threat will come from strong, potentially damaging straight line winds. A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, however. Rain will be briefly heavy, but flooding is not expected as rainfall totals should be in the ½ – 1 inch range.

CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings. Your primary source should NEVER be an outdoor siren. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home properly programmed with a fresh battery in case of power failure. Be sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. And, review your severe weather plan; identify the safe place and be sure everyone knows where it is. And, if you live in a mobile home, know where you will go in case you fall in a tornado warning polygon.

BEHIND THE FRONT: Temperatures will fall from the 70s early in the day into the 50s late in the day behind the front. The rain and clouds will be gone by Saturday night. Sunday will feature ample sunshine, with highs in the upper 50s.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will begin to build across Southeast, which would mean our weather stays relatively dry, and our temperatures will be on a warming trend. Highs by the middle of the week will be in the 70s. For now, still no signs of bitterly cold Arctic air spilling into the lower 48 before Christmas, but we know that won’t last.

Have a fantastic Friday afternoon!!!
Ryan