Late Summer Heat Wave; Very Active in the Tropics

VERY HOT, DRY PATTERN: Tons of sunshine in the sky today and it will be a hot day with highs in the upper 90s. For the rest of the week, the weather should be generally dry, mainly sunny and hot with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s each day. Tomorrow a weak surface front will move through the state and it will come through in dry fashion so no rain, it should bring some cooler nights towards to end of the week with lows well down into the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND AND BEYOND: No real change Saturday and Sunday; expect a good supply of sunshine both days with very hot temps as highs will be around 100 degrees both days. And, most likely, dry weather continues through much of next week with little hope for a widespread rain event. The heat lingers to with upper 90s expected through midweek.

VERY ACTIVE IN THE TROPICS: As expected, as we head through September, the tropics are very active as we are in the heart of the season. There are three named systems, and a couple other areas of interest the NHC is monitoring for development in the coming days:

HURRICANE DORIAN: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph, and a northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND: At 400 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 96.8 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 6 mph. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected today, and the center of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some slight increase in intensity is possible before landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday, with an increase in forward speed expected late in the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Also in the tropics:

1. A trough of low pressure, located just east of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeastward, away from Bermuda. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of heavy rainfall are likely. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan