Sizzling September Heat Continues

A strong upper ridge across the Deep South means temperatures will remain above average across Alabama this week, and prospects of beneficial rain will stay low, each day there will be a few afternoon storms, but these will be few and far between. High temperatures today and for the rest of the week will be in the mid to upper 90s for much of South/Central Alabama, which are well-above average for this time of year as we should be in the upper 80s. Each day will feature a partly to mostly sunny sky, and while a few showers and storms are possible during the peak heating of the day, rain chances are not great, generally less than 20% any given location will see rain.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The ridge begins to weaken and shift westward. Still, on Saturday, any showers should be widely spaced with a partly sunny sky along with a high in the low 90s. Then, we expect an increase in the number of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with a high between 90 and 92 along with a mix of sun and clouds.

NEXT WEEK: While we still aren’t seeing any sign of a major, widespread rain event, we will have some risk of scattered showers and storms daily with highs holding in the lower 90s.

GABRIELLE: Latest update from NHC had the the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 43.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph, and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, but a weakening trend is likely to begin tonight or Tuesday. Gabrielle is expected to become an extratropical low this morning and dissipate over the far North Atlantic near the northern British Isles on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from near the north coast of Hispaniola northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little, if any, development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible late this week and over the weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan