Heavy Rain with Embedded Thunderstorms Today

A TUESDAY SOAKER AHEAD: Periods of heavy rain and storms are expected throughout the day, and this is certainly the type of rain we need across the state to help the drought conditions. Some thunder is possible, but severe storms are not expected due to the lack of surface based instability, however, a rouge severe storm is possible if the warm front can lift north from the Gulf Coast and the SPC has introduced a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms today across southern portions of the state, but the overall threat for any of these is very, very low.

Temperatures will hold in the 60s and 70s all day as the rain falls. Rainfall totals should be in the 1-4 inch range, and that will certainly be a welcomed sight for sure. We will have to monitor rainfall rates as there could be some risk of isolated flash flooding.

REST OF THE WEEK: The rain will come to an end early Wednesday but the sky will stay mostly cloudy until the afternoon when gradual clearing is expected, highs will be in the mid 70. Drier and cooler air will then flow into the state and this will allow Thursday and Friday to be a couple of phenomenal fall weather days. Expect sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. The high Thursday will be in the lower 70s, followed by upper 70s Friday. Lows will be generally in the upper 40s and 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday looks dry and mild with a high in the lower 80s 70s, but clouds will begin to increase Saturday night, and Sunday looks somewhat unsettled with a chance of showers and thunderstorms returning to the state. The high Sunday afternoon will be in the lower 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The new work week will start with moist, unstable air moving into the state from the south as a rather dynamic system approaches the state. It looks to bring a good chance of showers and strong thunderstorms to Alabama Monday and possibly into Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Some stronger storms look possible, and perhaps some severe weather, but it is way too early to know any specifics, but is certainly something we will be watching as we roll through the weekend. Behind the system, much cooler, drier air returns by mid-week.

IN THE TROPICS: The Atlantic season continues until November 30th. We said goodbye to Melissa yesterday, but said hello to Tropical Depression 15 which will likely become Nestor.

There are a few other areas of interest. Could these become Olga or Pablo?

1. A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system and another disturbance over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is over the western Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Enjoy the rain!!!
Ryan