Sunny and Mild Wednesday; Severe Storms Saturday

Today will be sunny with highs in the mid 60s. Thursday will stay dry, with increasing clouds, temperatures rise into the upper 60s and lowers 70s; by Thursday night cloud will be increasing across the state.

HEAVY RAIN/STORMS: On Friday, moisture levels rise and we expect periods of rain and storms during the day, but there is no severe weather threat on Friday for Alabama. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 70s for much of Alabama. Also on Friday, the SPC has defined a severe weather threat across parts of Oklahoma, East Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, where severe storms are likely. That threat shifts east into Alabama on Saturday.

STRONG, SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY: The SPC has defined a severe weather risk for all of Alabama and Mississippi on their “Day 4” outlook for Saturday, and has defined the higher severe weather possibilities for West and South Alabama, but the entire state will have some risk of severe storms.

THE SETUP: A deep, negatively tilted upper trough will interact with a warm, unstable air mass in place across the Deep South on Saturday and we are expecting rain and storms through the day Saturday as a surface front pushes into the state. Along and out ahead of the front, storms are expected to be strong to severe, with potential for all modes of severe weather, which includes hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes. This has the potential to be a significant severe weather event for the state on Saturday.

We said it yesterday, there are strong signals that severe storms will form across our region based on the large, synoptic scale weather pattern. But, the small scale (mesoscale) features usually determine the true impact, and we simply don’t know how those elements will line up as we are still several days out from the event and a lot can and will change in the coming days. It is also too early to forecast the specific timing of the higher severe weather threat.

For now it is best to be aware of the threat this weekend and to take time to prepare and have that severe weather safety plan ready, and also have a way of hearing warnings.

RAINFALL: We should also note that rain amounts Friday and Saturday will be in the 1-4 inch range over much of the state.

With the ground pretty saturated, this could lead to some flash flooding issues as well. So along with the severe weather threat, there could be a pretty substantial flooding threat as well.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: The front stalls just to our south Sunday, and though Sunday looks mainly dry we will maintain a mainly cloudy day. The front will lift north Sunday night and stall across the state as we roll into next week, meaning an active weather pattern with rain and embedded storms expected Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, adding even more rain to some rather impressive rainfall totals from the weekend.

With the front stalled across the area, temperatures will remain mild for mid January with mid 60s to lower 70s each day.

Have a great day!
Ryan