Nice Today; Complicated Severe Weather Forecast Tomorrow

Today will be dry, but clouds will increase late in the day, with highs around 80°. Rain and storms arrive overnight, after midnight, probably closer to dawn. These storms will be potentially strong to severe, but they will most likely be elevated. The SPC has a low end severe weather risk “marginal” (level 1/5) over the western half of the state for the early morning activity.

SEVERE STORMS RETURN TO ALABAMA: Our next widespread storm threat arrives early tomorrow morning in Alabama. Today to our west, a dynamic storm system will move out of the Plains producing severe weather across the Mississippi Valley today and tonight, which will bring rain and thunderstorms to the state early tomorrow morning.

In the day 2 outlook, which covers the rest of Thursday, the SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for most of the state, including all of South and Central Alabama for tomorrow. This is a complicated forecast so let’s dive into what could happen…

This threat set-up is more typical of what we expect in Alabama this time of year. A low pressure will be lifting northeast across the Mid-South, providing sufficient low level shear, in the upper-levels the trough will remain positively tilted which isn’t ideal for severe weather, but still provides enough upper-level dynamics. At the surface, a warm front will move north through the state, and push should push well into North Alabama by tomorrow afternoon, so again all ingredients will be in place, but a lot will be determined by the small scale features which set-up the day of the event.

THURSDAY AM: Overnight tonight, strong and severe storms will be ongoing to the west of Alabama, and these will be pushing towards Alabama overnight, and could arrive in Alabama through the pre-dawn hours, as early as 3AM. During the morning hours, we will be dealing with strong to severe storms rolling across Alabama, but these will be elevated, since the warm front remains south of the area. These will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, so we will be watching these carefully early tomorrow morning.

THURSDAY PM: For tomorrow afternoon, the severe weather threat is more conditional, meaning it may happen it may not…it all depends on how the morning round of storms plays out and how much instability can build back in, the northward extent of the unstable air, and any small scale boundaries left over from the morning storms. For areas of Central Alabama, between Montgomery and Birmingham, forecast confidence is low on whether the storms will redevelop, but if they do, they could be strong and possibly tornadic.

Confidence is higher for the threat of severe thunderstorms over the southern third of the state during this time as the air will be more unstable and wind fields will be stronger. Storms over South Alabama tomorrow afternoon will be capable of producing large hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes with even a few strong (EF2 or higher) tornadoes possible. Again, still a lot to watch over the next 24 hours, but plan on the threat of strong and severe storms tomorrow in Alabama.

For now, we will have a 12 hour window from 5AM-5PM Thursday for the threat of severe weather, with the core tornado threat from 11AM-5PM. Rain amounts of 1-3 inches look likely, with isolated higher amounts, and some flooding issues are likely in some locations, The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of Central and West Alabama for tomorrow.

This is April in Alabama, the heart of our severe weather season, so this is not unusual. No two events are the same, so don’t compare this event and threat to past events. This event is completely different, and carries its own significant threat. Everyone will need to be prepared; it only takes one storm to makes this a very bad day for the state.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Most of the day Friday will be dry, but another fast moving system will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to the state late Friday night. There could be some unstable air involved, and these storms could possibly be strong to severe. We need to get past the Thursday event before we can really focus on this one, but for now, we are not too concerned. The rain will push out of the state by Saturday afternoon, followed by a clearing sky. Sunday looks dry and pleasant with ample sunshine along with a high in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: For now Monday and Tuesday look dry, followed by chance of rain and thunderstorms by Wednesday or Thursday and yes, another system with the potential for severe weather.

Plan now and be prepared for the storm threat tomorrow!
Ryan