Big HEAT Means Big STORMS

It is certainly summertime in Alabama and the weather pattern looks very typical for late June and early July. We are in a very humid, tropical air mass and each day this week we will see a partly sunny sky, hot and humid afternoons, which will aide in the development of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be at or just above average this time of year with low to mid 90s expected, and with such high humidity, heat index values will be in the 100°-105° range each afternoon…TAKE IT EASY!!! Nights will remain very muggy with lows in the mid-70s.

Each day you just have to watch the radar as showers and storms tend to form in scattered, random locations, mainly during the peak heating of the day when instability is at its highest. Rain chances are a bit higher than average for this time of year, as we should see scattered storms today, with more numerous and widespread ones Wednesday through Friday. Today, the odds of any one spot getting wet will be in the 50% range, however, that will climb towards the 60-80% range the rest of this week. Of course, with so much instability, stronger storms thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds each day, and a few severe thunderstorm warnings will be possible each day as well. We do note, the SPC has much of North Alabama in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) on Wednesday.

However, just because you are not in a risk area doesn’t mean you can’t have some severe storms or evening flash flooding issues. If you have something planned outdoors any day this week, just keep a close eye on radar, and always go indoors when thunder roars!

HOLIDAY WEEKEND: The overall pattern just does not change much over the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday will feature a mix of sun and cloud with a generous coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs should continue to hover in the lower 90s.

NEXT WEEK: And, the pattern rolls along. Pretty much a persistence forecast with hot, muggy days with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening storms” remaining in the forecast. Highs will be around lower 90s most days.

TROPICS: A trough of low pressure is located off the coast of North Carolina. Significant development of this system is not anticipated while it moves generally northeastward, away from the east coast of the United States and merges with a frontal boundary. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

Stay cool, drink, plenty of water, and wear a mask in public!!!
Ryan