Rain Chances Increase Today and Through the Weekend

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO RISE: Higher moisture levels are back across the area as the air mass is very muggy and almost tropical. For today, like yesterday, scattered showers and storms are expected and we should see a few more of them across the Alabama landscape, compares to what we saw yesterday. Again, the sky will be partly sunny through the days and highs should be in the upper 80s for most locations.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For both Saturday and Sunday, expect more clouds than sun, with scattered to numerous showers or storms both days as rain chances will be in the 60-80 percent range. No weekend “wash out”, but we will see periods of rain and thunder, as the radar will be active as times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Not much change; highs will remain in the upper 80s, with partly sunny days and the usual risk of random, scattered showers and storms on a daily basis, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours.

IN THE TROPICS: It is very active as we have two active storms, and four other areas of interest.

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE:At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 51.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. A motion toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

TROPICAL STORM RENE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 38.5 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Friday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: 1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys during the next couple of days. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished since earlier today, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Stay safe and have a great day!!!
Ryan