All Eyes on Tropical Storm Sally in the Gulf

WE NOW HAVE SALLY: Tropical Depression 19 become Tropical Storm Sally and is expected to become a hurricane by the time it makes landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. At 500 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west near 7 mph, and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life threatening storm surge is possible along the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas outside the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday.

3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across portions of southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida through Sunday. Flash, urban, and minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast from Sunday through the middle of next week.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible early next week in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over portions of the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this evening.

Impacts along the northern Gulf Coast early in the week, but the exact impacts will depend on the track and overall intensity…stay tuned.

FOR OUR SUNDAY: Not much change in the forecast for Sunday as it will remain very humid, with highs around the 90 degree mark, and scattered to numerous showers and storms at times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

THE WEEK AHEAD: The forecast for the week all depends on Sally. As it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, Alabama looks to remain on the east side of the storm, which is the wet side and we look to have a rather unsettled week of weather. Of course the forecast will change in the coming days due to Sally’s overall intensity and track, but for now, even deeper tropical moisture will be pulled into Alabama. That means for now, we are going to stick with more clouds than sun each day with scattered showers and storms at anytime, but of course, a greater coverage during the afternoon and evening hours due to instability. Too early to know if we will have to deal with a potential tornado threat from Sally, again it all depends on intensity and ultimate track of system. Highs should be in the low to mid 80s daily, while nights will feature mid and upper 70s.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: We still have Paulette and Rene, Tropical Depression 20 and two other areas of concern.

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE: At 500 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph. A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles from the center.The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

RENE: At 500 PM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 45.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. A slower northwestward motion is expected by Sunday, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to turn west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is possible over the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

T.D. 20: At 500 PM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

1. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located near the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure that has developed along a tropical wave. Environmental conditions support some additional development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, upper-level winds could become less conducive for development. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Last three names on the list are Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. After that, we go to the Greek alphabet, like we did in 2005.

Have a great evening!!!
Ryan