Big HEAT Means Big STORMS this Week; Watching the Tropics

It is August in Alabama so that means it will be hot and humid with thunderstorms possible each day. It is the common rinse and repeat forecast that occurs this time of year, however, rain chances will be above average for this time of year. For the week ahead, and into the weekend as well, the days will be partly sunny and hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s daily. With very humid conditions, heat index values will be over 100° at times each day as well. By the afternoon hours, the radar will start to get active as scattered showers and storms develop. With so much instability in place, storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and tropical downpours and again is is why we say big HEAT means big STORMS. These are also the days some locations could get over two inches of rain, while other stay dry.

IN THE TROPICS: Two areas of interest the NHC is monitoring for possible develop this week. The next two names up are Fred and Grace.

1. A low pressure system located about 380 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Have an incredible Monday!!!
Ryan